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Updated wood availability forecasts in progress

6 April 2021

Margules Groome, on behalf of the New Zealand Ministry of Primary Industries (MPI), are currently undertaking the 2020 update to the New Zealand wood availability forecasts (WAF). These forecasts build on the National Exotic Forest Description (NEFD) data, provided by New Zealand plantation forest owners, to predict the potential wood availability at both national and regional levels. These forecasts are carried out roughly once every 5 years, with the last WAF published in 2014-2015.

Late in 2020, Margules Groome developed the forecasts for the Nelson Marlborough wood supply region as a pilot exercise. With the successful completion of this pilot region, they are now moving on to the forecasts for the remaining regions and the national level forecasts. The project is scheduled to be completed by the end of June 2021. All regions follow a similar methodology to that which has been used for the last couple of forecasts.

The NEFD areas statements and yield tables form the basis for the Remsoft Woodstock wood flow models. The models are designed to mimic generalised future forest management practices in each of the regions. These generalised practices include rotation ages and replanting rules. They are undertaking a survey of large forest owners to obtain an understanding of their harvesting intentions over the next 10-20 years.

These harvest intentions will be used to provide a solid base for the future predictions. Several different scenarios will be modelled to demonstrate different potential future supply forecasts for each region. Once the draft models are completed, regional meetings will be held to canvas feedback on the draft forecasts. A regional meeting with forest owners in the Otago and Southland regions was held alongside the Southern Wood Council meeting on Wednesday this week. Feedback will be incorporated into the final models and forecasts. The final forecasts will be made publicly available on the MPI website.

If you own forests in New Zealand of greater than 3 000 hectares, you or your forest manager can expect to be contacted by a Margules Groome representative to help us understand your harvesting intentions over the next 10-20 years. In addition, all New Zealand plantation owners should receive an invitation over the next couple of months to a regional meeting (likely to be in March) to discuss your regional draft forecasts. If you haven’t been contacted and think you should have been, please don’t hesitate to get in touch: info@margulesgroome.com

Source: Margules Groome

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