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Transport cost index – Unprecedented impact of fuel pricing

7 July 2026

We recently released our Grant Thornton Transport Cost Index for the March quarter and that includes forecasting for the following quarter. The magnitude of the rise forecast is unprecedented in the Index’s history and demonstrates the downstream impact of the geopolitical tension in the Strait of Hormuz on transport.

While there seems to have been some cooling in the pricing of crude and refined products landing here, I think there’s still some time to go before we get back to reasonable stability.

Transporting New Zealand / Grant Thornton transport cost index history (2019 - 2024)

Australian regulators showing forward thinking

It was interesting to read reports from Australia about how dramatically its road transport regulatory framework may need to evolve over the coming decade.

Representatives from their regulatory bodies, National Transport Commission (NTC) and the National Heavy Vehicle Regulator (NHVR) are looking ahead to a future that could include automated trucks, data-driven enforcement and a very different approach to regulation.

The NTC said the biggest challenges facing regulators were adapting laws built around the assumption that a human is always driving the vehicle, and when laws would need to clearly define when responsibility sits with a human operator and when it rests with the company providing the automated driving system. This issue has been a bugbear over the last decade or so and I’m surprised it hasn’t been remedied yet.

NHVR CEO Nicole Rosie, formerly CE of NZTA, outlined the NHVR’s vision for a future where compliance activities become increasingly driven by data and intelligence rather than traditional roadside enforcement.

I think it’s good this already appears to be on NZTA’s radar. Given the increase in the availability of on-vehicle monitoring, whether we need to keep spending on roadside compliance infrastructure remains to be seen. While we share some common issues with our Trans-Tasman neighbours, we need to keep in mind that there is one massive difference which I am concerned is too often overlooked.

Unlike us, Australian transport businesses do not need to obtain a transport service licence, and therefore I think there’s a good case that we don’t mirror everything Australia does. Unless of course we lose the licensing regime in which case common approaches could make more sense.

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Source: Transporting New Zealand
Chart credit: Transporting New Zealand & Grant Thornton

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