NZ Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries – June 2025

This Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) shows a food and fibre sector on the rise after some tough years. Thanks to the sector’s hard work, strong prices for key exports, and a focus on strong relationships with our trading partners, record revenue of $59.9 billion is forecast for the year to 30 June 2025.

It’s an outstanding result that surpasses by $3 billion forecasts made in December and reflects the continuing strength and popularity of Kiwi products across the world. We expect sector export revenue to climb to an impressive $65.9 billion by 2029.

The highlights for this year’s SOPI include:

• dairy export revenue lifting 16 percent to reach a record $27.0 billion;
• meat and wool export revenue increasing 8 percent to $12.3 billion;
• horticulture export revenue growing by a phenomenal 19 percent reaching $8.5 billion;
• forestry export revenue jumping 9 percent to $6.3 billion;
• seafood export revenue lifting 2 percent to $2.2 billion.

This SOPI tells the story of a food and fibre sector managing a complex trading environment to get its trusted products to consumers. Uncertainty emerges as a recurring theme in this report, reflecting the complex and evolving nature of the current macroeconomic landscape, especially regarding trade policies in major economies.

Forestry Summary

Forestry export revenue is expected to increase by 9 percent to $6.3 billion in 2024/25 led by stronger log prices and increased sawn timber export volumes as supply-side disruptions in processed wood products ease. The outlook is tempered by uncertainty surrounding log exports. China’s weak property market continues to dampen log demand, while available harvest volumes are relatively high.

Further uncertainty exists with shifting global supply chain patterns in response to trade tensions, which may result in exporters needing to look to different markets. Domestically, low construction sector demand, high energy costs, and a soft economy are weighing on the sector. However, lowering interest rates and increasing labour availability may stimulate activity at home over the forecast period.