The Carbon Forestry 2026 Conference, held in Rotorua on 4–5 August, brought together forest managers, investors, industry leaders and government representatives to explore some of the big questions facing carbon forestry.

The Government’s commitment to forestry was reinforced by Climate Change Minister Hon Simon Watts, who told delegates that forestry remains an essential part of New Zealand’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and the country’s wider climate response.

Across two days, discussion ranged from the future of the NZ ETS and emerging carbon markets to biodiversity, natural capital and the practical challenge of protecting forest assets from wildfire. A recurring theme was that the frameworks underpinning carbon forestry are changing – and that investors and forest owners will need to adapt with them.

Where the ETS is heading

The future of the NZ ETS was a major focus. Catherine Leining, Policy Fellow at Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, argued that the current system cannot deliver New Zealand’s long-term climate goals on its own. She proposed a Removals Investment Mechanism (RIM) that would separate emissions pricing from removals and create greater incentives for a more diverse forestry sector.

Christina Hood of the New Zealand Climate Foundation highlighted another shift, with international compliance markets increasingly favouring long-lived and durable carbon removals.

Eva Murray, Principal Analyst at the Climate Change Commission, warned that under current settings the NZ ETS could lose its ability to drive net emissions reductions after 2034, adding urgency to the policy debate. John Saunders, Director at the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI), provided an update on regulatory changes, including the Tupu-ake portal, while acknowledging ongoing concerns around carbon price volatility and perceptions of land-use change.

Beyond Carbon

Another strong theme was the emergence of natural capital as a broader investment opportunity, with carbon, biodiversity and other environmental outcomes increasingly viewed as complementary sources of value.

David Brand of the International Sustainable Forestry Coalition outlined how institutional investors are beginning to consider climate mitigation and biodiversity alongside traditional measures of risk and return when designing portfolios.

Several speakers explored what this can look like on the ground. Rebecca Lee of the Kaimai Mamaku Restoration Project highlighted the need for nature finance to extend beyond carbon sequestration, including support for native afforestation and landscape-scale pest control.

Lucas MacDonald, Carbon Project Manager at Zero Invasive Predators (ZIP), discussed work in South Westland investigating whether carbon gains from predator elimination could help fund ongoing native forest protection.

Meg Graeme shared findings from a Tāne’s Tree Trust project exploring the use of radiata pine as a transitional nurse canopy for re-establishing native forests on marginal land, with effective animal browser control critical to the success of the approach.

Managing Wildfire Risk

With increasing climate volatility, wildfire risk is becoming another important consideration for forest owners and investors.

In a dedicated workshop, National Wildfire Manager Tim Mitchell introduced a session in which Veronica Clifford of the Bioeconomy Science Institute outlined a semi-quantitative fire hazard framework. The research identified rotational exotic forests as having the highest fire hazard potential, particularly during the first 10 years of growth.

Grant Pearce, Wildfire Scientist at FENZ, explained how the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system combines weather information with fuel moisture and fire behaviour indicators to help trigger operational restrictions.

From an industry perspective, Peter Casey, CEO of Nateva, outlined an estate-level fire-risk model that scores individual forests against factors including powerline corridors, road frontage and neighbouring land uses. He also highlighted practical measures such as targeted grazing and fuel reduction that can reduce exposure before a fire starts.

Taken together, the discussions at Carbon Forestry 2026 highlighted a sector in transition – from the future design of carbon markets and the growing importance of natural capital to the practical realities of managing increasingly complex forest risks.

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